Mission Viejo and Orange County, California Real Estate Blog

Housing and Economy Headed for Sustainable Recovery; First-Time Homebuyers Lead the Way
November 18th, 2009 9:36 AM

RISMEDIA, November 18, 2009—Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”

The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47% share of home sales over the past year, up from 41% in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36% in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0% over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6% to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3% in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8% by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.

“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With the expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5% in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said. He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5% in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8% in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.

“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4% this year, then rising 1.6% in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4% this year and 1.2% next year.

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Gail McClendon  Residential    
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64 MELROSE Dr    
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If a listing displays "Short Sale/Subj to Lender Approval**" then that listing has been identified by the seller and the listing broker as a "short sale". This means that, at the listed price, the proceeds from the sale may not be adequate to pay all liens and costs of sale. Any offer made that does not fully cover the existing amount(s) owed to the lienholder(s) plus the costs of sale could be subject to lienholder approval, which approval may be exercised at the sole and exclusive discretion of the lienholder(s). The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, including but not limited to square footages and lot sizes, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be personally verified through personal inspection by and/or with the appropriate professionals. © Copyright, SoCalMLS®, Copyright, CRISNet Regional MLS®, Copyright, CARETS®


 

 

Gail McClendon  Residential    
24642 Chrisanta Dr    
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Mission Viejo Central (MC)
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Gail McClendon  Residential    
24831 San Andres Ln    
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If a listing displays "Short Sale/Subj to Lender Approval**" then that listing has been identified by the seller and the listing broker as a "short sale". This means that, at the listed price, the proceeds from the sale may not be adequate to pay all liens and costs of sale. Any offer made that does not fully cover the existing amount(s) owed to the lienholder(s) plus the costs of sale could be subject to lienholder approval, which approval may be exercised at the sole and exclusive discretion of the lienholder(s). The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, including but not limited to square footages and lot sizes, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be personally verified through personal inspection by and/or with the appropriate professionals. © Copyright, SoCalMLS®, Copyright, CRISNet Regional MLS®, Copyright, CARETS®


 

 

Gail McClendon  Residential    
26264 Via Roble 38    
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Mission Viejo North (MN)
Orange County (OR)

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18 Copperstone Ln    
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Posted by Gail McClendon on November 18th, 2009 9:36 AMPost a Comment (0)

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