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Posted by Gail McClendon on July 23rd, 2008 2:20 PMPost a Comment (0)

Tuesday, 7/29, loan rate lock advisory
July 29th, 2008 12:45 PM
Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and sizable stock gains. The stock markets are showing strength with the Dow up 122 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This morning's economic news came from the Conference Board who posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. It showed a reading of 51.9 and also revised last month's final reading higher by 0.6. This means that consumer confidence was higher the past two months than many had thought. This is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because consumer spending is tied to consumer confidence.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow that is relevant to mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to influence bonds and mortgage rates. If s tocks rise again, bonds will likely fall and mortgage rates inch higher. If stocks give back today gains, we should see mortgage rates improve tomorrow.

There are two reports scheduled for release Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 2.3% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers' costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflatio n concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008
gail@viphousesearch.com
www.viphousesearch.com

Posted by Gail McClendon on July 29th, 2008 12:45 PMPost a Comment (0)

Loan lock information for Monday 7/28/08
July 28th, 2008 12:28 PM
Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today, but there are several important reports due this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop tomorrow. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 50.0, which would be a lightly lower readin g than June's reading.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are two on the schedule for Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 1.8% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers' costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Employment and ISM reports being released, but Thursday's GDP release is highly important to the markets and could heavily influence mortgage pricing also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008
gail@viphousesearch.com
www.viphousesearch.com
 
Condo for Sale On Lake Mission Viejo or ONLY $349,900


Posted by Gail McClendon on July 28th, 2008 12:28 PMPost a Comment (0)

Friday rate lock suggestions
July 25th, 2008 11:07 AM
Friday's bond market has opened in well in negative territory as traders erase a sizable rally in bonds yesterday. The stock markets are in positive territory after their large sell-off yesterday helped fuel the bond rally. The Dow is currently up 51 points while the Nasdaq has gained 17 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will erase yesterday's late rally and prevent much of an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates.

None of today's economic news did anything to help bond prices or mortgage rates. The first was June's Durable Goods Orders that showed an increase in orders for big-ticket items of 0.8%. This was much larger than the small decline that forecasted, indicating that the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing.

The second report was the revision to July's University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. It showed a reading of 61.2 that was well above the earlier reading of 56.6. This means that consumers w ere much confident about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is considered bad news for bonds because higher levels of confidence usually means that consumers are more willing to make large purchases, helping to fuel consumer spending.

The third was June's New Home Sales report, but it was the least important of the three. It showed a much higher level of sales than was expected and revealed an upward revision to May's sales numbers. Fortunately, this data is not considered to be of high importance or we may have seen bonds even lower than current levels.

With exception to Monday, next week is packed with relevant economic reports. Included in the long list of reports scheduled for release is the single most important quarterly report and the arguably the most important month report. In addition, there are several other pieces of data that may influence the markets and mortgage rates next week. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008
gail@viphousesearch.com
www.viphousesearch.com

Posted by Gail McClendon on July 25th, 2008 11:07 AMPost a Comment (0)

Wed. Daily Rate Lock Advisory
July 23rd, 2008 2:19 PM
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory since there is no relevant economic data to offset early stock gains. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 24 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release this morning, however, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report this afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony last week, I don't think we will see any significant surprises in this report, and therefore will likely not cause much movement in mortgage rates later today.
There are two housing sector related releases scheduled for this week with the first coming tomorrow morning. Neither will likely have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. June's Existing Home Sales will be posted tomorrow morning and is expected to show a decline in sales.

We also have a 5-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may influence bond trading but will also give us an indication of investor appetite for bonds. If it is met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise late tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from no w... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008
www.viphousesearch.com
gail@viphousesearch.com

Posted by Gail McClendon on July 23rd, 2008 2:19 PMPost a Comment (0)

Lock or not on your loan
July 22nd, 2008 1:35 PM
Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory as investors remain concerned about inflation sensitive securities. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 34 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, but due to strength in bonds late yesterday we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today or tomorrow morning. This will leave the bond market and mortgage rates to be influenced by stock and oil prices. This could further pressure bonds in my opinion, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate. I would not be surprised to see an upward revision to mortgage pricing later today if bonds remain near current levels.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report tomorrow afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when de termining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony last week, I don't think we will see any significant surprises in this report, and therefore will likely not cause much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon.

There are two housing sector related releases scheduled for Thursday and Friday, but I don't think they will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. June's Existing Home Sales will be posted Thursday while New Home Sales will be released Friday. I would expect that other reports or factors will drive bond trading and mortgage pricing much more than these will.

We also have a 5-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may influence bond trading but will also give us an indication of investor appetite for bonds. Generally speaking, despite the lack of a data-packed calendar, I would still maintain con stant contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008
www.viphousesearch.com
gail@viphousesearch.com
 

Posted by Gail McClendon on July 22nd, 2008 1:35 PMPost a Comment (0)

Today's interest rates
July 21st, 2008 9:48 AM
Monday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's only economic news met forecasts. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 46 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently unchanged form Friday's close, but we will still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

The Conference Board reported that their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)for June fell 0.1%, as latest forecasts had called for. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months, meaning economic activity may remain flat in the near future. This is basically good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

This week will be interesting for the bond market and mortgage rates. There are five remaining economic reports scheduled for release, but only one of them is considered to be of high importance to the markets. With data being posted all bu t one day of the week, we may see some noticeable fluctuations from day to day in mortgage pricing.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report Wednesday afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony last week, I don't think we will see any significant surprises in this report, and therefore will likely not cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

Overall, this is a moderately significant week for the bond market and mortgage rates. If we get weaker than expected economic results, we may see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, stronger than expected results will likely lead to higher rates for the week. We also have a 5-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may in fluence bond trading but will also give us an indication of investor appetite for bonds. Generally speaking, despite the lack of a data-packed calendar, I would still maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
www.viphousesearch.com Gail McClendon 949 422-434 Real Estate for the Real World.
©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by Gail McClendon on July 21st, 2008 9:48 AMPost a Comment (0)

Current Trend Direction: Still battling resistance
July 16th, 2008 12:27 PM

Risks favor: Locking
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond:  $100.78, -41bp
Inflation pressures remain a persistent problem, as evidenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that was reported hotter than expected this morning.  Mortgage Bonds dropped after the news, adding to yesterday's losses. 
Prices paid by consumers rose in June by the most since 1991, led by soaring food and energy costs.  The headline CPI number - which includes food and energy - came in at 1.1%, higher than the 0.7% that was expected.  The Core CPI - which excludes food and energy - rose by 0.3%, higher than the 0.2% gain expected.  Prices overall are up 5% from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year rise since 1991, considerably higher than the 4.5% rise Wall Street economists were expecting.  The year-over-year core rate increased 2.4% , also more than forecast, and well outside the Fed's target zone of 1 to 2%. 
The Treasury International Capital Report for May showed Net Foreign Purchases of US securities of $67.0 Billion, down sharply from the $115.1 Billion investment seen in April.  Weakening foreign demand for US securities is a negative for the Bond market, but more importantly is a negative for the Dollar.  A weak Dollar adds pressure to oil prices, making the inflation issue even worse. 
Today is round two for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his semi-annual appearance on monetary policy, this time before the House Financial Services Committee.  Also, the Fed's "Minutes" from the June 25th meeting will be released at 2:00pm ET and may be a late driver for the Bond market, depending on what the Minutes reflect about member attitudes toward monetary policy, inflation, and economic growth.
Wells Fargo reported second-quarter profits that topped analysts estimates.  But the big story was a surprise announcement that Wells has both the capital - and more importantly, the confidence - to boost their dividend to shareholders by 10%.  This move by Wells instilled some much needed faith in the health of our nations banking system, which has been the cause of much anxiety lately.  On this announcement, Stocks dramatically reversed course from what looked like another down day, to breaking back above 11,000 on the Dow. 

Posted by Gail McClendon on July 16th, 2008 12:27 PMPost a Comment (0)

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